Wednesday 14 April 2010

When the Man Comes Around

Seems that the normal FML youth player fetish is well under way in most GWs as usual, but i'm going to explain why you are doing it wrong.

On old FML, building an all youth team was a very viable strategy. Even if you had quite a few on high wages you could pretty much sit back, lose all your games, watch them develop and if you had some decent ones and some luck you are suddenly swimming in high reputation superstars that half the GW is after.

Sell a couple on and you were in for a big cash bonanza, keep em and rise up the leagues to start your domination albeit 10 seasons behind everyone else.

I know a lot of people enjoy the youth side of things which is fair enough, play the game how you want, but if people are hoping this is going turn their teams into rich super clubs in the future then think again.

The first major issue you have now is prize money forms a huge proportion of your income. If you are in the Premiership battling out for top spot then you could possibly pull in £4.4m for taking top spot - that's a hell of a lot of cash! But you have an all youth team, your not in the Premiership, you are in the depths conference you are probably looking at closer to £1.5m if you win it, which would cover about £55k wages. You are really going to struggle to amass a team which is high enough potential to achieve anything on the wage budget you have available.

So your plan is struggle financially then sell on your player for mega bucks and make your move. So, who exactly is going to be buying this player for mega bucks ? The guy who won £4.4m in the Premiership I hear you cry. But is he really ? Assuming we are a few seasons into the game his wage bill will be spiralling out of control and he will need to invest heavily in infrastructure while being very shrewd in the market to keep wages down. Sure, teams near the top ARE going to have more money for sure, but they wont be paying £5m+ for your players. They will probably be too busy complaining on the forums anyway ;)

The second problem you have is your team reputation wont go up as it is directly based on how well you perform in official competitions and only 25% of it is based on the players at your club - who will all be low reputation due to the league you are in! So again, you are going to be pulling in far less money on this front too and it will not go up unless you start performing in the league no matter how good your players potential may be.

So your someone who's actually not planning to sell any of your players. You have somehow gathered together a top bunch of youth players and they are all looking like they are going to be stars. So now you are hammering your way up the leagues and heading to the top. Now on old FML you would be in prime position right now due to all your players locked down on low wages. But as you start heading up the leagues, your player reputation is going to rise, your club reputation is going to rise, your players are going to start demanding more and more money and you will need to invest heavily in the stadium. So assuming by some miracle you even get the team to work, what exactly have you achieved ? You are in exactly the same position as the guy who signed a proper team and won the Premiership 7 seasons ago, except you have gone through 7 seasons of being shit.

As I say, i'm sure there's a lot of satisfaction in creating a youth team and rising through the leagues but it is in no way an optimal or efficient strategy. It's likely to leave you bleeding money, being far behind the top teams for a long while and in a worse position by the time you actually catch them.

But what about youth academies ? I'm going to build loads and get some great players! As Jakswan puts it, it's all a bit of a lottery, but look at the costs. A 1* academy costs around £200k build and around £100k a season to maintain. For that cost you could have put together a full 16 man youth team at the start of the GW from the free agent list !

Even I jumped on the bandwagon with this one, but there's tons of -7's on the free agent list in my GW and while they would never have become world beaters they would have all turned a GUARANTEED huge profit. If you are running a 5* academy you are looking a huge £1m expense in the first season. Think about that for a second.... one million pounds.

You are extremely unlikely to get this money back. Youth academies are fun and yeah, the better players are generally going to end up there but you should see them as a luxury rather than an essential element of your youth empire.

So what is the best strategy for making money ? Rather shockingly, it's to create a
decent senior team and win football games! If you missed the boat early on and didn't make it to the Premiership then you can still make a lot of money. It's just a case of putting together a workman like squad on cheap wages and bobbing around in the Championship / Division 1 which will earn you a nice amount of cash.

The final point i'd like to make is the managers paying £500k+ type fees on youth players at this stage of the GW. Unless you were very lucky with your initial pool, you have essentially condemned your team to the lower leagues - your choice. But you have given another team all of the tools they need to dominate the higher leagues early on. If you are hoping to catch them one day, giving them a massive head start probably isn't the best course of action. I've heard of the tortoise and the hare, but the last time I checked, the tortoise didn't give the hare a rocket powered jet pack.

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